Some new research

Below are a few new papers I’ve co-authored with a number of colleagues over the past couple months.

• The effect of the National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard (NBFDS) on consumer preferences and acceptance of bioengineered and gene-edited food with Vincenzina Caputo and Valarie Kilders.

  • Abstract: The National Bioengineered Food Disclosure Standard in the United States mandates disclosure of foods with bioengineered ingredients. However, some gene-edited foods are excluded from the Standard. This study explores consumer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for bioengineered and gene-edited foods, with a focus on romaine lettuce, in comparison to conventional, organic, and non-GMO alternatives. Our analysis includes three disclosure formats: the BE label, text, and QR code. We also determine the impact of information-seeking behavior on consumer valuations and the factors influencing such behaviors. Findings reveal a preference for conventional, organic, and non-GMO products over gene-edited and bioengineered options. However, the BE label is identified as the most favored disclosure method. In fact, under the BE disclosure, and particularly among information seekers, WTP for gene-edited and bioengineered products sometimes exceed WTP for conventional options. The study discusses policy implications regarding how disclosure formats and access to information can influence consumer perceptions and acceptance of new food technologies.

• Modeling Impacts of Location- and Product-Targeted Demand Enhancement on Pork Producer Profitability with Glynn Tonsor

  • Abstract: Prior research has documented wide variation in consumer sensitivity to changes in pork prices across different pork products and locations. This heterogeneity in demand elasticities implies there are potential benefits in location- and product-specific promotion strategies. To explore this issue, an economic model of the pork sector was created linking retail demand for six pork products in 50 retail markets with the farm-level supply of hogs in the U.S. The model is used to determine the impacts of targeted demand enhancement strategies by identifying which products, and in which locations, promotion would produce the greatest return for pork producers.

• Consumer Sensitivity to Pork Prices - A 2018-2023 Comparison of 50 U.S. Retail Markets and 6 Pork Products with Glynn Tonsor

  • This study used weekly retail scanner data from 50 U.S. retail markets and six different pork products to estimate market- and product-specific own-price elasticity estimates. Beyond these market- and product-specific own-price elasticities for the full six years spanning 2018 to 2023, we also provide parallel estimates for each two-year period (2018-19, 2020-21, and 2022-23) showing temporal patterns in consumer price sensitivity.

• Value of Farm Data in Farmland Rental Markets with Nathan DeLay, Nathan Thompson, Jim Mintert, and Todd Kuethe in Land Economics.

  • Abstract: Precision farming data enhances agricultural productivity by informing site-specific resource management. These benefits may be capitalized into the underlying value of the farmland itself, raising rental rates. This paper uses a stated preference choice experiment to estimate farmers’ willingness-to-pay for farm data in farmland rental markets. Farmers are willing to pay a small premium to acquire data accrued by previous operators, depending on the field type and quality information provided by the landowner, as well as farmers’ use of precision agriculture technology. We find evidence that farm data confers both a “management value” and a “signaling value” to prospective tenants.

• Attracting and Securing Budgets for Agricultural and Applied Economics Departments with Matt Holt, Frances Homans, and Rudy Nayga in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy

  • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to discuss the challenges in attracting and securing adequate budgets for departments of agricultural and applied economics, while recognizing that the institutional and political contexts matter. Agricultural and applied economics departments that operate with an entrepreneurial mindset, that maintain and grow their student numbers, and that have a vibrant demand for their extension and research activities will thrive. The good news is we often have considerable control over the factors that contribute to our longer-term success.

OSU Extension Bot

Agricultural Extension services around the country are continually trying to find new ways to provide useful science-based information to the public in the modern ways people search for and gather information. OSU Extension is no different, and against that backdrop, I’m pleased to link to our new ExtensionBot.

By now everyone is likely familiar with the AI driven large language models like ChatGTP, Claude, or Gemini. These “generative AI” models differ in a number of ways, including the information and data upon which they are trained.

Our ExtensionBot is trained on Extension Facts Sheets produced by Extension services around the country at different Land Grant Universities, and our particular chatbot is weighted to rely most heavily on those fact sheets produced by the faculty and staff in Oklahoma State University Extension. Many thanks to my colleague David Warren who led this effort. For more information, check out this article.

Try it out and see what you think here.

Innovation in Gene Editing and Plant Breeding

Yesterday I had the privilege of moderating a panel discussion focused on gene editing hosted by the Farm Foundation. The main speakers included:

• Allen Van Deynze, Ph. D., Director, Seed Biotechnology Center and Associate Director, Plant Breeding Center, University of California, Davis

• Richard Lawrence, Ph.D., Head of Genome Editing, Yield, Disease, and Quality Research, Bayer Crop Science

• Fan-Li Chou, Ph. D., Senior Vice President, Scientific Affairs and Policy, American Seed Trade Association

• Alison Van Eenennaam, Ph.D., Professor of Cooperative Extension in Animal Biotechnology and Genomics, University of California, Davis

You can watch the presentations and discussion here or at the video link below.

Plant-Based versus Conventional Meat: Substitution, Complementarity, and Market Impacts

That’s the title of a new paper co-authored with Vincenzina Caputo and Dan Blaustein-Rejto. Here’s the abstract:

“Evidence regarding whether consumers view plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) as substitutes or complements to animal-based meat is limited; however, the ultimate effect of increased demand for plant-based meats on poultry and livestock production depends on this relationship. While the research on consumer demand for meat alternatives is growing, most current elasticity estimates are based on stated preferences discrete choice models, which assume consumers choose only one option and that all options are substitutes. This study employs a basket-based choice experiment (BBCE) to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities at both disaggregate and aggregate product levels. We utilized a between-sample approach and designed two BBCEs to reflect both at-home and away-from-home consumption settings. We then used the results from the BBCE to inform an equilibrium displacement model. Our findings indicate that: 1) consumers are more price-sensitive when dining out than when eating at home, 2) own price elasticity for PBMAs lie between premium meat options (salmon and ribeye steak) and more affordable choices (burgers and chicken breast), 3) PBMAs complement conventional meat in at-home consumption but show a mix of complementarity and substitution dynamics in dining out; and 4) lowering prices of plant-based beef and chicken alternatives is unlikely to significantly impact conventional poultry and livestock production. ”

Read the whole thing here.

Econometric assessment of the effects of COVID-19 outbreaks on U.S. meat production and plant utilization with plant-level dat

That’s the title of a new paper co-authored with Joe Cooper, Vincent Breneman, Meilin Ma, Josh Maples, and Shawn Arita that was just published in Food Policy. Here’s the abstract:

“This paper quantifies the impact of the COVID-19 disruption on U.S. meatpacking production. We employ a confidential plant-level meatpacking plant data set from USDA that gives daily livestock (cattle, swine, broilers) slaughter by individual firms and their individual plants. We found a larger underutilization rate of processing capacity for larger-sized beef and pork plants during the peak of plant slowdowns in April-May 2020, while no such relationship was found for broiler plants. In our panel analysis of beef packing plants, we found that higher COVID-19 infection rates in a county were associated with greater plant disruptions, but that plants appear to have been able to adjust relatively quickly to these disruptions. Our empirical analysis suggests a beef plant distribution with fewer large plants could have meant smaller shocks to production during the initial surge of COVID-19 disruptions. However, beef plant size was significantly less important to maximizing utilization of processing capacity after the initial surge.”

The cool aspect of this paper was that we have access (via our USDA co-authors) to previously unexplored confidential micro-level data on plant-level production during the COVID-19 disruptions.